Early data shows hiring slowed sharply in April as economists brace for Friday’s full report. 

The U.S. may or may not be headed for a recession, according to a recent report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

But while economists get bogged down in debates over technical factors like gross domestic product (GDP), most people just want to know: how will my job and my bills be affected?  

The official jobs and unemployment data will be released on Friday, but some early indications suggest the numbers won’t be great.  

ADP, the payroll management software that many companies use to manage human resources, released a batch of data recently that offers a glimpse of what’s coming on Friday.  

Here are the key insights from ADP:  

+62,000 

Private-sector companies added 62,000 new jobs in April 2025. It was the smallest gain since July 2024.  

120,000 

Dow Jones analysts expected the private sector to add 120,000 jobs last month. Instead, companies added just about half as many jobs as predicted.  

-51,000 

Last April, in 2024, private companies added 113,000 new jobs. That’s over 50,000 more than they added this April.  

4.5% 

“Job stayers,” people who have worked the same job for more than a year, earned 4.5% more in April 2025 than they did in April 2024. That’s faster than inflation, which the latest figures show is 2.4% per year.  

People who changed jobs saw a 6.9% pay increase compared to last April.  

The Road Ahead 

Dow Jones economists expect Friday’s jobs data to show 133,000 new jobs across all sectors in April, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.

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