The relationship between the United States and Venezuela represents one of the most complex and contentious bilateral dynamics in the Western Hemisphere, marked by a lack of formal diplomatic relations. What was once a partnership built on oil commerce began falling apart when Hugo Chavez assumed power in Venezuela in 1999. In the wake of the United States killing dozens of alleged drug traffickers off the Venezuelan coast, concerns are growing the two countries could be headed toward a more direct conflict. 

While there are still many questions on exactly what is the United States’ strategic goal with regards to Venezuela, there is plenty that we do know. 

The U.S. government recognizes the legitimate democratic institutions in Venezuela, including the National Assembly elected in 2015, but does not recognize the current government under Nicolás Maduro, whom the U.S. State Department considers to be a dictator. Many independent election monitors – including the Organizations of the American States – declared Maduro’s 2024 reelection as illegitimate amid allegations of widespread voting irregularities.

The U.S. has supported various Venezuelan opposition figures, including Juan Guaidó as the interim president during the 2019 crisis and more recently, Edmundo González after the 2024 election. 

The U.S. has imposed sweeping economic sanctions targeting Venezuela’s vital oil sector, aiming to pressure the regime toward democratic reforms. The U.S. State Department blames “Maduro and his representatives for extensive corruption, economic mismanagement, and violation of international norms.”

The economic sanctions imposed by the U.S have included restrictions on state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA), financial sanctions, and personal penalties against regime officials.

Some observers believe these sanctions have exacerbated Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis, contributing to Venezuela’s economic collapse that has driven over 7.8 million people to flee the country. Colombia has received the largest number of Venezuelan refugees, with over 2.8 million with Peru receiving the second-largest refugees with around 1.7 million.

As of 2023, approximately 770,000 Venezuelan immigrants were living in the United States, according to the Migration Policy Institute. This represents a significant increase, as there were only around 144,000 Venezuelan immigrants in the U.S. in 2010.

Back in Venezuela, Maduro shows no indication of voluntarily relinquishing power. Venezuela has also strengthened ties with U.S. adversaries, such as Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba, further complicating diplomatic calculations.

Since late August, the U.S. has deployed a number of warships off the Caribbean coast of Venezuela and since early September, U.S. strikes have killed at least 80 people in 20 attacks on small boats suspected of transporting drugs in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean.

Ahead of the U.S. strike’s President Donald Trump claimed that those boats were carrying “either drugs in general” or the “fentanyl, mostly”and that “Every boat kills about 25,000 people.” 

However, Venezuela plays virtually no role in the fentanyl trade and that the Caribbean is not a known significant fentanyl-smuggling route. According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), the vast majority of illicit fentanyl in the U.S. is manufactured in labs in Mexico using precursor chemicals from China, and then smuggled across the U.S. southern border, primarily in vehicles. The main drug produced and trafficked out of Venezuela is cocaine. By some estimates, over 10% of all cocaine imported into the U.S. originates there.

Last week, the U.S. Navy’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, reached its provisional position in the Caribbean. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave the ongoing southern Caribbean mission an official name: Operation Southern Spear. 

The USS Gerald Ford rounds off the largest buildup of U.S. naval power in the region in generations, bringing the total number of troops to around 12,000 on nearly a dozen Navy ships. 

Neither the White House nor the Defense Department have presented public proof that the boats destroyed were carrying fentanyl. Trump said that his administration had “incredible intelligence” that drugs were being smuggled on the boats and when asked for proof, Trump referenced “big bags of cocaine and fentanyl all over the place” in the water.

Most Americans are wary of deeper U.S. military action in Venezuela. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, just 29% of Americans support U.S. military killing drug suspects and only 21% would support military action to oust Maduro. 

Hegseth said that Operation Southern Spear, in conjunction with the U.S. Southern Command, which is responsible for Central and South America, “removes narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere, and secures our Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people.”

Trump has also repeatedly used the term “narco-terrorists” in reference to the Venezuelan government and refers to Maduro as the head of a drug cartel, the “Cartel de los Soles” (Cartel of the Suns), which is allegedly led by Venezuelan military officials. The US has offered a bounty of $50 million for Maduro’s capture. 

Trump decided and informed Congress in a confidential notice that the United States is engaged in a formal “armed conflict” with drug cartels which were designated a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) earlier this year and that suspected smugglers for such groups are “unlawful combatants.” 

Some legal experts argue that the president lacks the authority for these attacks without congressional approval, because the Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war. Senate Republicans, however, recently voted to reject legislation that would have put a check on Trump’s ability to launch an attack against Venezuela without congressional authorization.

In response to the recent U.S. attacks, Maduro has intensified his ongoing rhetoric against what he calls “US imperialism,” and is trying to rally his population to defend Venezuela against a possible invasion, with the Venezuelan armed forces holding a large-scale military exercise involving around 200,000 participants. Maduro also announced that he would activate 4.5 million militia members.

So far, the U.S. government has not confirmed that it is planning military attacks within Venezuela but Trump has stated that “Maduro’s days as president are numbered.”