With independent commissions slowing down blue states, Republicans are racing ahead on new maps. 

“Redistricting” – the process of a state redrawing the boundaries of its Congressional districts – is supposed to be a once-a-decade activity. States get data from the Census, and then update their Congressional map to reflect the changing population.  

But now, smack in the middle of the decade, Texas is trying to change its map.   

Why? Texas governor Greg Abbott – under pressure from President Trump – wants to redraw the districts to be more favorable for Republicans. This is a tactic called “gerrymandering,” which both parties have used to their advantage over the years. 

Now, the GOP hopes they can use gerrymandering to maintain their majority in the House after next year’s midterm elections. 

Pandora’s Box Opens  

Democrats aren’t taking the Texas gerrymander lightly.  

California and New York immediately threatened to retaliate and redraw their maps to offset Texas’s changes.   

And just like that, red and blue states alike jumped into the redistricting wars. Now, leaders in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Oregon, and Washington are all eying new maps.   

Who Draws the Lines?  

Republicans have the upper hand in this fight.   

Not every state draws their Congressional map the same way. Some use independent commissions, ostensibly non-partisan panels designed to draw fair maps without favoring one party or the other. Others let the state legislature draw the lines, which usually means whichever party is in power gets to tilt the map in their favor. 

 

Democratic states are more likely to use independent commissions, while Republican states are more likely to have the legislature draw maps.  

  • Of the 13 states that use commissions, 8 are controlled by Democrats 
  • Of the 31 states that let legislatures draw the lines, 20 are controlled by Republicans 
  • 6 states only have one House member for the whole state, no map needed 

This matters because state legislatures can move faster and act more politically than independent commissions. With filing deadlines and primary elections quickly approaching, blue state commissions might not be able to redistrict in time.  

Where the Seats Are 

Republicans are better suited for a redistricting fight, and they also have more to gain.  

Democrats currently hold 51 House seats in red states. Almost all of those – 47 – are in states where the legislature draws the districts. That’s 47 vulnerable Democratic seats.  

Republicans, on the other hand, hold just 36 seats in blue states, and only 6 of those are in legislature-drawn maps. 

Here are the five Republican states with the most Democratic-held House seats: 

 

Notice how all let the state legislature draw the maps. Even North Carolina isn’t spared by its Democratic governor: Congressional maps in the Tar Heel state can’t be vetoed by the governor.  

Compare that to the five Democratic states with the most Republican-held seats:

All but one of them – the one with the fewest GOP seats – rely on commissions.  

So Republicans have more targets, and more tools to go after them. 

Where Things Stand 

California and New York are threatening to gerrymander their maps, but that’s easier said than done.  

In California, the state constitution requires an independent commission to handle redistricting. It’s possible to amend the constitution, but only if a majority of voters in the state vote for the amendment in a statewide election.  

New York is even tougher. Like California, changing the map would take a constitutional amendment. But the amendment process in New York takes at least two years, so they wouldn’t be able to do it in time for the 2026 midterms. The only workaround is if a court rules that the current map is illegal.  

Texas, on the other hand, can redraw the lines at any time. The legislature is currently holding hearings and trying to settle on a map proposal. Once that’s drawn, it’s just like passing any other law: a simple majority in the state house and senate vote for it, and the governor signs it into law.  

Texas – like most of its Republican peers – could lock in a new map well before campaign season kicks off. California, New York, and the rest of the country’s Democrats will have to pray for a redistricting miracle.