From Obamacare to the Dreamers, shutdowns failed to deliver policy wins. So why would Washington risk another one now? 

Whenever a government shutdown looms, Washington actors talk tough. 

Republicans and Democrats alike insist they’ll hold the line until they get what they want – even if it means tanking the U.S. economy. 

But is shutting down the government an effective tactic?  

With Washington just a little over a month away from a government funding deadline and leaders on both sides digging their heels in, it’s worth exploring the three previous shutdowns this century and seeing what actually happened. 

2013 Shutdown: Obamacare  

What Republicans wanted: Republicans controlled the House, and their base was itching for a fight after the Tea Party movement sent a new wave of conservatives to Washington. The GOP refused to pass a funding bill unless the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or “Obamacare”) was repealed. 

What Democrats said: President Obama and Senate Democrats insisted the ACA was off-limits. They wanted a “clean” funding bill with no strings attached. 

What Happened: The government shut down for 16 days. Republicans folded and allowed the government to reopen with the ACA untouched. Democrats agreed to broader budget talks, which ultimately resulted in increased Defense spending.  

Verdict: The shutdown didn’t work. 

January 2018 Shutdown: Dreamers 

What Democrats wanted: Republicans controlled Washington, but Democrats had enough votes in the Senate to filibuster any legislation. They used that leverage to demand protections for Dreamers, people who were brought to the US illegally as children by their parents.  

What Republicans wanted: Keep immigration out of the funding fight and pass a straightforward “clean” spending bill. 

What Happened: The government shut down for 3 days, mostly over a weekend. Democrats relented in exchange for a promise that the Senate would debate immigration later. The Senate did end up holding those immigration debates, but no legislation passed. 

Verdict: The shutdown didn’t work. 

December 2018 – January 2019 Shutdown: The Wall 

What Republicans Wanted: Republicans controlled Washington but needed Democratic votes to overcome a filibuster. The House passed a spending bill with $5.7 billion in funding for President Trump’s border wall, but Senate Democrats blocked it.  

What Democrats Wanted: Standard homeland security funding without wall money. 

What happened: The government shut down for 35 days, the longest in U.S. history. President Trump relented and reopened the government without wall funding. In the final budget, Congress did give him $1.4 billion for border fencing.  

Verdict: The shutdown mostly worked. While Democrats agreed to give President Trump some funding, it was only a quarter of what he requested.  

So, Do Shutdowns Work? 

Almost never.  

Two of the three shutdowns this century achieved nothing. Republicans couldn’t repeal Obamacare in 2013, and Democrats couldn’t secure protections for Dreamers in 2018. The funding bills ended up passing just as they would have without a shutdown. 

The only time it worked came at a high cost. Democrats kept the government shut down for over a month – wasting billions of taxpayer dollars, dragging down the economy, and cutting off services Americans rely on. And even then, they still had to give President Trump a quarter of what he was demanding.  

The only question is whether Washington has learned that lesson, or if we’re about to pay the price again.