Three charts explain what the bill does to the national deficit, according to top economic forecasters. 

“This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.” 

That’s how Elon Musk described the One Big Beautiful Bill, a tax and spending package currently making its way through Congress. 

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Musk warned it would “massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit to $2.5 trillion (!!!) and burden America citizens with crushingly unsustainable debt.” 

Is he right? Here’s what economists are saying about the One Big Beautiful Bill – which has passed the House and is now being debated in the Senate – in three simple charts.

Who’s Behind These Estimates? 

We looked at three sources that analyzed how the bill might affect the annual deficit – which is just the gap between what the government spends and what it brings in through taxes. 

  • The Penn Wharton Budget Model, a project of the University of Pennsylvania. 

Some of these groups use two different methods: 

  • “Conventional scoring” just adds up the direct costs and savings of the bill. 
  • “Dynamic scoring” tries to predict how the economy will react to the bill and how that will affect the deficit. 

Since this bill hasn’t passed the Senate, the forecasts are subject to change. Republican Senators like Ron Johnson are concerned about the bill’s effect on the deficit and are threatening to block it unless the bill includes more spending cuts.

Year-by-Year Deficit Impact  

This chart shows how much each forecast says the One Big Beautiful Bill would increase the deficit each year compared to current law. 

The lines don’t show the deficit itself, but rather how much it will grow each year. The higher the line, the bigger the increase to the deficit.  

Both the CBO and Penn Wharton expect the bill to lower the deficit this year, before skyrocketing in 2026.In their most optimistic model, the Tax Foundation predicts the bill will lower the deficit slightly in 2030 (when some of the temporary provisions like No Tax On Tips expire, giving the government more revenue).

Total Deficit Added Over 10 Years 

When you total up those year-by-year impacts, here’s how much each group thinks the One Big Beautiful Bill would add to the deficit over the next decade. They’re saying the bill will add anywhere from $1.7 to $3 trillion to the deficit over a decade. 

 

What That Means for the Overall Deficit 

This final chart puts the bill’s impact in context. It shows the full size of the annual deficit – both with and without the One Big Beautiful Bill. 

The gray area is the “baseline deficit,” or what the government is already expected to borrow each year if tax and spending laws stay the same. The yellow area shows how much more would be added if this bill passes. 

Even without any new laws, deficits are projected to rise – from $1.9 trillion in 2025 to $2.6 trillion by 2034. But with the One Big Beautiful Bill, they could grow even faster, topping $2.8 trillion by the end of the decade. 

The Bottom Line 

Every forecast agrees with Elon Musk: the One Big Beautiful Bill that passed the House would grow the national deficit. The only question is by how much.  

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