Republican and Democratic presidents have maintained that Beijing does not get a say over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Now, as President Donald Trump hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington, that longstanding approach is facing renewed scrutiny.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Washington for his first visit to the nation’s capital in more than a decade. One of the many items on his agenda is Taiwan – specifically, U.S. weapons sales to the island.
Xi is expected to pressure President Trump to halt those sales, which would be a stark departure from U.S. policy dating back 44 years.
And recent comments from President Trump have raised a new question: Is that longstanding policy beginning to change?
Key Takeaways
- The Six Assurances have guided U.S. policy toward Taiwan since 1982. One says the United States has not agreed to consult with China over arms sales to Taiwan.
- Presidents of both parties have continued selling weapons to Taiwan while reaffirming that policy. The approach has remained largely consistent from President Reagan through President Biden and President Trump’s first term.
- President Trump’s second term is raising new questions about that approach. His administration has announced $11.2 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, but another roughly $14 billion package remains stalled after President Trump described it as a “very good negotiating chip” with China.
The Six Assurances to Taiwan
The issue came up after President Trump met with Xi in Beijing earlier this year.
A reporter asked President Trump about a U.S. commitment dating back to the Reagan administration and whether his conversations with President Xi represented a departure from it.
“Well, I think 1982 is a long way,” President Trump replied.
President Trump did not say he dispensed with the Reagan-era policy. But he acknowledged that President Xi had raised U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan and that the two leaders discussed the issue “in great detail.”
“We discussed arms sales too,” President Trump said.
So what happened in 1982?
President Ronald Reagan was negotiating with China over the future of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. America had been providing military assistance to Taiwan for decades, but the diplomatic landscape had recently changed: The United States formally recognized the People’s Republic of China in 1979 while maintaining unofficial relations with Taiwan.
The resulting U.S.-China joint statement, known as the 1982 communiqué, said America intended to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan, but also made clear that any reduction depended on China continuing to pursue a peaceful resolution of its dispute with Taiwan.
At the same time, President Reagan gave Taiwan what became known as the Six Assurances.
One was particularly clear: “The United States has not agreed to consult with the PRC on arms sales to Taiwan.”
The Reagan administration also wrote privately that the United States must “strongly resist” pressure from Beijing to consult over those sales.
In other words, China would not get a say over arms sales to Taiwan.
That principle would endure across presidents of both parties.
What Have U.S. Presidents Said About Arms Sales to Taiwan?
For more than four decades, U.S. policy toward Taiwan has remained remarkably consistent.
Presidents continued approving billions of dollars in arms sales to Taiwan. And administration after administration reaffirmed the Six Assurances or rejected the idea that Beijing should have a say in our weapons deals.
The table below shows what each president or administration has said about Taiwan arms sales and what actions they took. Dollar figures are the estimated values of proposed Foreign Military Sales notified to Congress during each administration, in nominal dollars.
View Presidential Statements and Actions on Taiwan Arms Sales
Presidential Statements and Actions on Taiwan Arms Sales
| President | What They Said | What They Did |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | “The U.S. has not agreed to consult with the PRC on arms sales to Taiwan” and “We must strongly resist pressure from Beijing” to do so. | $4.5 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. Created the Six Assurances and continued selling arms to Taiwan. |
| George H.W. Bush | “This sale of F-16s to Taiwan will help maintain peace and stability … in conformity with our law.” | $8.2 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. Approved the landmark sale of 150 F-16 fighter jets. |
| Bill Clinton | Asked whether the Six Assurances remain valid, an official said: “There will be no change in US policy towards Taiwan.” |
$8.7 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. |
| George W. Bush | “Our policy toward Taiwan and the PRC… is articulated in the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three U.S.-China joint communiques, and the Six Assurances. It has not changed. It will not change” | $15.6 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. Ended annual arms-sales talks and moved decisions to an “as-needed” basis. |
| Barack Obama | “We do not consult with China beforehand informally, formally or otherwise, about defense sales.” | $14.0 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. |
| Donald Trump (first term) | “The United States has not agreed to prior consultation with Beijing on arms sales to Taiwan.” “They [the Six Assurances] endure today.” | $18.3 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. Declassified the original Six Assurances cables. |
| Joe Biden | “The ‘one China’ policy is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiques, the Six Assurances… That has not changed.” | $8.4 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. |
| Donald Trump (second term) | “Well, I think 1982 is a long way. …We [President Trump and President Xi] discussed arms sales too.” | $11.2 billion in arms sales to Taiwan announced so far. Another $14 billion package has been held up for months. |
The pattern crossed party lines. Republicans and Democrats alike have upheld the Six Assurance for decades.
Trump’s Taiwan Turnaround
President Trump is not only potentially breaking with his predecessors – he has also sharply changed course from the position taken during his first term.
In just four years during his first term, President Trump oversaw more weapons sales to Taiwan than any president before him – even those who served eight years.
Now, he could be on the brink of setting a new record: being the first president to break with the Six Assurances.
Even if the Assurance isn’t explicitly broken, President Trump’s words and actions are raising questions. While he’s already announced $11.2 billion in arms sales this term, he’s been stalling another major package for months.
The deal is fully worked out and includes roughly $14 billion worth of advanced missile defense systems like Patriot interceptors. Reuters reported in March that the package is ready to go and is only awaiting the President’s approval. But President Trump has so far refused, calling it a “very good negotiating chip” with China.
Did President Trump violate the Six Assurances?
There isn’t an official answer.
While several administrations and Congress have reaffirmed the Six Assurances, there is no law or court deciding whether an Assurance has been broken.
The Reagan administration’s internal guidance surrounding the Six Assurances, however, was clear about how Taiwan arms sales were supposed to work.
President Reagan wrote that the “quality and quantity” of weapons provided to Taiwan should be “conditioned entirely on the threat posed by the PRC.” His administration said Taiwan’s defense needs – and the military threat from China – alone should determine U.S. arms sales.
U.S. law uses similarly strong language. The Taiwan Relations Act says the president and Congress should determine the weapons Taiwan receives “based solely upon their judgment of the needs of Taiwan.”
None of that proves that President Trump broke any of the Assurances. But it does raise a question about whether the stalled sale is being decided solely according to Taiwan’s defense needs – the standard laid out by President Reagan and in the Taiwan Relations Act – or whether it is also being used as leverage in the broader U.S.-China relationship.
Are the Six Assurances still in effect?
The Six Assurances have survived enormous changes in the relationship between the United States, China, and Taiwan.
They survived the Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Biden administrations. They even survived President Trump’s first term.
For 44 years, presidents of both parties continued selling weapons to Taiwan while maintaining that Beijing did not get to decide those sales.
Officially, the Six Assurances are still on the books. The U.S. has not changed its policies regarding Taiwan. But President Trump’s comments and actions are raising questions about how that policy is being applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the Six Assurances to Taiwan?
The Six Assurances are commitments President Ronald Reagan made to Taiwan in 1982. Among them, the United States said it had not agreed to consult with China over arms sales to Taiwan or set a date for ending those sales.
Does China have a say in U.S. arms sales to Taiwan?
Under the longstanding U.S. approach, China can object to arms sales to Taiwan, but Beijing does not get to decide whether, when, or what weapons the United States sells Taiwan. President Reagan’s guidance said arms sales should be based on Taiwan’s defense needs and the military threat from China.
Did President Trump violate the Six Assurances?
There is no official legal test for determining whether a president has violated the Six Assurances. President Trump has discussed Taiwan arms sales with President Xi and has held up a roughly $14 billion package while calling it a negotiating chip. That has raised concerns, but it does not by itself establish that China has been given a formal role in the decision.
Are the Six Assurances still in effect?
Yes. The United States has not formally abandoned the Six Assurances. Congress has repeatedly reaffirmed them, and they remain part of the framework governing U.S. policy toward Taiwan.
Why is a $14 billion Taiwan arms package being delayed?
The package, which includes advanced missile-defense systems, has reportedly been ready for President Trump’s approval for months. President Trump said after meeting President Xi in May that he was holding the package “in abeyance” and described it as a “very good negotiating chip” in broader U.S.-China negotiations.
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