Record turnout, Latino voter engagement in South Texas, and a $120 million Senate primary signal an intense election cycle ahead. 

The 2026 midterms are officially underway, and early primaries in Texas and North Carolina suggest voters are already highly engaged. 

Texas led the way with record Democratic turnout, strong Republican participation, a surge in Latino voting across parts of the Rio Grande Valley, and more than $120 million spent in the state’s Republican Senate primary. Several races remain unsettled and will head to May runoffs, extending the political fight in the state. 

High turnout across states, especially in Texas  

Texas: Turnout was extremely strong in both parties’ primaries. More than 2.2 million votes were cast in the Democratic primary, the highest turnout for a Texas Democratic midterm primary since 1970 and second only to the 2008 presidential primary. Republican turnout was also high, with more than 2.1 million GOP voters, representing the party’s largest primary turnout since 2016.  

North Carolina: While neither Senate primary was particularly competitive, turnout remained strong. Roughly 200,000 more votes were cast in the Democratic contest than the Republican primary, and early voting exceeded the levels seen in the past two midterm primary cycles.  

Latino voter turnout surged in South Texas.  

Latino voters played a significant role in the Texas Democratic primary. In five rural Hispanic-majority counties in South Texas, more Democratic votes were cast than the number of voters who supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. The results suggest that parts of the Rio Grande Valley may be shifting back toward Democrats after trending Republican in recent cycles.  

Turnout also rose in four newly redrawn congressional districts, signaling strong engagement in competitive areas. Across Texas’ 64 Latino-majority counties, participation exceeded levels from the past three primary cycles, pointing to renewed Democratic engagement after recent Republican gains with Latino voters.  

Texas dominated campaign spending  

Record spending in Texas was driven by the high-profile Republican Senate race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.   

More than $120 million was spent on the primary alone, making it the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history (surpassing the roughly $80–90 million spent in the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate primary). The spending reflects the high stakes of the Cornyn–Paxton runoff and divisions within the Texas GOP. 

The spending battle is likely far from over. With the race now heading to a May runoff, national party organizations and outside groups are expected to continue spending heavily in what could become one of the most expensive runoff contests in recent Senate history. 

Several incumbents face runoffs 

Cornyn and Paxton aren’t the only candidates heading to a runoff in Texas. Some congressional incumbents also failed to secure majority support and will now face May runoff elections, extending key contests in the state.   

On the Democratic side, longtime Houston congressman Al Green (TX-09) will face freshman Congressman Christian Menefee in a runoff after neither candidate secured a majority. Green has represented the district since 2005 and is currently serving his tenth term, making the race notable as a challenge to a long-standing incumbent in a safely Democratic district.  

Runoffs typically produce lower turnout and more ideologically motivated electorates, which can force candidates to spend additional time and resources appealing to core primary voters before pivoting toward general-election voters.  

How No Labels allies fared  

Several members of Congress aligned with No Labels also advanced in the first primaries of the 2026 cycle. In Texas, Democratic Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34) and Henry Cuellar (TX-28) both secured renomination, while Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz (TX-15) also advanced from her primary. All three represent South Texas districts that have become increasingly competitive in recent election cycles.  

In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Don Davis (NC-01) also won renomination in his district. Davis represents a politically competitive seat that has been closely watched in recent election cycles.  

Incumbents faced notable primary challenges  

Several incumbents faced significant primary pressure in the first contests of the 2026 cycle. In Texas, Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw (TX-02) lost his primary, marking one of the most notable incumbent defeats of the night and highlighting continued turbulence within Republican primaries.  

In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee (NC-04) defeated progressive challenger Nida Allam in a closely watched race that reflected ideological tensions within the Democratic Party. While Foushee ultimately prevailed, the competitive contest underscored ongoing debates within the Democratic coalition.  

High turnout, record spending, and multiple runoff races suggest the 2026 midterms are already shaping up to be competitive, expensive, and closely watched.