Democrats have a strong chance to take control of a majority of governorships for the first time in years. And the map looks very different from the usual red-state, blue-state divide.
Top Three Takeaways
- Democrats have a strong chance of winning a majority of governorships this year.
- The map is unusually scrambled: Iowa currently leans Democratic, Oregon is competitive, and Republican strongholds like Florida and Texas are only Lean Republican.
- Candidate quality and state-level issues are playing an outsized role, creating several governor races that look very different from Senate races in the same states.
If you knew nothing about the candidates and looked only at how states normally vote, you would probably make some very bad predictions about the 2026 governor races.
A Democrat is favored to win Iowa. Oregon is competitive. In Florida and Texas – two of the biggest Republican strongholds in the country – the GOP nominees are only slightly favored to win.
And along the way, Democrats could take control of a majority of America’s governorships for the first time since 2010.
But the path to that majority is not as simple as red states moving left. Some Democratic strongholds are surprisingly competitive, while Democrats are threatening Republicans in states that would normally be safely red.
Here’s what is driving the unusual 2026 governor map – and what it could mean for control of the states.
How Many Governor Races Are There in 2026?
There are 36 governor elections this year.
The other 14 states do not have governor elections. Of those, six currently have Democratic governors and eight have Republicans.
Among the 36 states holding elections, 18 governorships are currently held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans.
According to the Cook Political Report, the map breaks down like this:
Get the Data
Per Cook Political Report:
| Rating | Number of Races |
|---|---|
| Democratic – Safe/Not Up | 19 |
| Democratic – Lean/Likely | 4 |
| Toss Up | 5 |
| Republican – Lean/Likely | 4 |
| Republican – Safe/Not Up | 18 |
Democrats are favored (or guaranteed) to win in 23 states, Republicans in 22. And five states are currently too close to predict.
But the most interesting part is not simply how many races are competitive. It’s where they are competitive.
Why Is Iowa’s Governor Race Leaning Democratic?
Iowa has become a reliably red state in recent years. But Cook Political Report currently rates its governor race as Lean Democratic.
The main reason is Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand.
Sand has already shown that he can win voters who normally support Republicans. He was the only Democrat elected statewide in Iowa in 2022, and his reputation for independence and anti-corruption work has helped him build an unusually strong profile for a Democrat in the Hawkeye State.
Republicans, meanwhile, nominated Zach Lahn, a first-time candidate who unexpectedly defeated President Trump’s preferred candidate, Rep. Randy Feenstra.
So far, Lahn has not been able to overcome voters’ concerns about the trade war with Canada (Iowa’s top trading partner) or the Iran conflict’s effects on diesel prices (the fuel for most farming equipment).
The polling reflects it. A September Marist poll had Sand leading 54% to 42% among registered voters, including a 57% to 33% advantage among independents.
Is Oregon’s Governor Race Competitive?
Oregon presents almost the opposite situation as Iowa.
The state reliably votes blue. But Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek is facing a competitive reelection race against Republican Christine Drazan.
The reason is largely dissatisfaction with state government.
Affordability, taxes, homelessness, and housing have all become major issues, while Gov. Kotek’s personal standing remains weak.
A September Oregon Public Broadcasting poll found just 38% of Oregon voters had a positive view of Gov. Kotek, and nearly 60% said the state is on the wrong track. That helps explain why the Republican candidate is leading 47%-46%.
Could Democrats Win Texas or Florida?
Perhaps the most surprising ratings on the map are Florida and Texas. Both are major GOP strongholds and are home to President Trump and several potential 2028 candidates like Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis, and Greg Abbott.
Yet neither state’s governor race is safe for the GOP.
In Florida, Republican bombthrower Rep. Byron Donalds is facing off against David Jolly, a former Republican congressman now running as a Democrat.
That gives Democrats more crossover potential than they might normally have in the state. Housing costs, insurance, and other affordability concerns are also giving Democrats an opening after years of Republican control.
Cook rates it Lean Republican: Rep. Donalds is favored but is by no means guaranteed to win. A September Stetson University poll found him with just a bare majority – 51% – of the vote.
In Texas, Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa is attacking incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott over populist issues including data centers and Flock surveillance cameras. And it doesn’t help the Governor that Democrat James Talarico is faring better-than-expected in the Lone Star State’s Senate race.
Texas remains Lean Republican, but the fact that it’s competitive at all says a lot about the current political environment.
Will There Be Ticket Splitting in 2026?
The governor race map also shows that voters are not treating every statewide race the same.
In several states, Cook’s governor rating differs significantly from its Senate rating.
Get the Data
Per Cook Political Report:
| State | Governor Race | Senate Race |
|---|---|---|
| Maine | Solid D | Toss Up |
| New Hampshire | Likely R | Toss Up |
| Oregon | Lean D | Solid D |
| Florida | Lean R | Solid R |
| Georgia | Toss Up | Likely D |
| Michigan | Lean D | Toss Up |
| Texas | Lean R | Toss Up |
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins remains competitive even as Democrats are all but guaranteed to hold the governor’s mansion. Part of the reason why is her reputation as a commonsense leader with a proven bipartisan record of delivering for the Pine Tree State.
In Michigan, Democrats are expected to win the governor’s race, but their odds of winning the Senate race are lower after nominating Abdul El-Sayed, a controversial progressive who has faced scrutiny over campaigning with Hasan Piker – the Twitch streamer who said “America deserved 9/11.”
And in Texas, Republicans are in a much worse spot after passing over longtime Sen. John Cornyn, a proven bipartisan dealmaker with strong conservative credentials. Instead, they nominated Ken Paxton, a scandal-plagued Republican bombthrower who might well deliver control of the Senate to the Democratic Party.
These gaps between the governor and Senate maps suggest voters are still judging candidates as individuals, not just voting based on party labels.
Ticket splitting – where voters choose candidates from different parties for different offices on the same ballot – is not as common as it once was. But these signs show it might make a comeback this November.
Will Democrats Win a Majority of Governorships?
There’s a good chance they will. And they don’t even need Florida or Texas to do it.
Veteran election forecaster Nate Silver’s model gives Democrats an over 80% chance of winning the majority of governor races this year. And Decision Desk HQ favors Democrats in 20 of the 36 governor races on the ballot this year.
If the forecasts are correct, this would be the first time since 2010 that Democrats control a majority of governorships.
The 2026 map is a reminder that not every election has become completely nationalized.
A Democrat can still win in a red state like Iowa. A Republican can still win in a blue state like Oregon. And voters who choose one party for Senate may choose the other for governor.
That makes this year’s governor races unusually unpredictable – and gives Democrats their best opportunity in years to take control of a majority of the nation’s governorships.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many governor races are there in 2026?
There are 36 governor elections in 2026. Fourteen states are not holding governor elections this year.
How many governor races are competitive in 2026?
Cook currently rates 12 races as Lean Democratic, Toss Up, or Lean Republican.
Which states have Toss Up governor races in 2026?
Cook currently rates Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin as Toss Ups.
Why is Iowa’s governor race leaning Democratic?
Democrat Rob Sand has already won statewide, has crossover appeal with independents and Republicans, and is running in a political environment that is currently difficult for Republicans.
Can Democrats win a majority of governorships?
Yes. Democrats are favored to win a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010.
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