These three numbers paint a grim picture.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week released their World Economic Outlook, a periodic report on the global economy.

This isn’t just another economic report – it’s something governments, investors, and companies use to make big decisions. The World Economic Outlook helps shape how central banks set interest rates, how countries budget, and where businesses decide to put their money.

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The outlook is grim. The global economy is slowing – and the IMF says America’s quickly-evolving trade policy is part of the reason why.

These three numbers sum up the IMF’s warning:

1.8%

That’s how much the U.S. economy will grow in 2025, according to the IMF. It’s a number that’s dropping quickly: just a few months ago, in January, the IMF thought America would grow by 2.7% this year.

1.8% is pretty low for America’s standards. It would be the worst economic growth rate since 2020, when the Covid pandemic and recession caused the economy to shrink by 2.2%. Prior to that, 2016 was the last time America saw only 1.8% growth.

Compare that to the 60 years following World War II, when the U.S. economy grew by 3.5% annually on average. Even between 2003 and 2023, a period marred by several recessions, the average growth rate was 1.9%.

2.8%

The global economy will grow by 2.8% this year, per the IMF. That number is also down from the January report, when the IMF predicted global growth of 3.3%.

The IMF lays must of the responsibility on U.S. tariffs and other countries’ responses to them. According to the IMF, tighter immigration policies in the U.S. and Europe are also rerouting refugees to poorer countries, increasing strain on already fragile systems. Developing countries are left absorbing more people than they have the funding or infrastructure to support – and unlike wealthier nations, they often don’t have job openings that match migrants’ skillsets.

The IMF’s big issue, however, is uncertainty. Trade policy – especially in the U.S. – is shifting so fast that it’s rattling confidence. The report points to sharp drops in the stock market, rising bond rates, and a slowdown in hiring as signs that businesses and investors are pulling back while they wait to see what happens next.

145%

America’s new effective tariff rate on Chinese imports. The IMF reports that U.S. tariffs are at their highest rates in over a century.

These tariffs “are a major negative shock to growth,” according to the IMF report. They point to historic drops in the stock market and slumps in consumer spending as warning signs for the U.S. economy.

On the bright side, the IMF believes “a deescalation from current tariff rates” could boost economic growth both in the U.S. and around the world.

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